Next decade may see no warming

I have been busy researching our parish history for a history exhibition. One of the periods of history that was most significant for our parish (we no longer have a village) was the 1300s. This was a period of "climate change" and millions across Europe died in the resultant famine. The BBC report that the famine was the product of a cooler and damper climate. This was made worse because in medieval times as they were unable to dry and store grain effectively.  The colder winters and wetter summers also severely affected the harvest. As a result millions died of starvation with cannibalism being widely reported from Poland to Ireland. Many were trampled to death in bread queues in London too.

As well as the loss of life due to starvation a contagious disease arrived in Europe.  The disease commonly known as "The Black Death" killed between 30% and 45% of the population and some towns and villages were wiped out. In 1349 it is recorded that 80 priests died in Herefordshire and the population fell to a third of its previous level and took over 500 years to recover.  Our parish church records that they had three priests between 1347 and 1349. Many villages and hamlets in Herefordshire now were thriving market towns in the 1300s.

Pearl Buck  said "If you want to understand today, you have to search yesterday", so I was really interested to read the BBC article that the Earth's temperature may stay the same for the next decade because the natural climate cycles are entering a cooling phase. This cooling cycle appears to happen every 60 to 70 years.

It is important to remember that climate research is prediction, a scientifically based fortune telling which needs to be reviewed, amended and updated on an ongoing basis. As was once said: "Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers, take economists seriously!"